Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.679077 5.575443 6.569592 7.750051 9.109389 10.621411 12.426152
2025-03-30 3.357140 4.560153 6.045099 7.993998 10.463324 13.465073 17.364485
2025-04-06 2.481423 3.783427 5.546587 8.063881 11.512534 16.011765 22.254034
2025-04-13 1.886064 3.191230 5.109916 8.055984 12.367029 18.329307 27.054429
2025-04-20 1.620722 2.994436 5.156720 8.679584 14.113318 21.980422 33.977453
2025-04-27 1.347361 2.709582 4.997657 8.937410 15.314732 24.938038 40.162989
2025-05-04 1.151007 2.503525 4.914089 9.275945 16.644288 28.171569 46.996598
2025-05-11 0.946568 2.229733 4.656934 9.269518 17.391845 30.547376 52.690293
2025-05-18 0.748184 1.915319 4.262534 8.950143 17.554102 31.975162 56.975303
2025-05-25 0.581082 1.620407 3.844535 8.511778 17.434908 32.897012 60.474539
2025-06-01 0.478921 1.443952 3.627812 8.416073 17.902879 34.821830 65.742191
2025-06-08 0.395397 1.288599 3.424157 8.309970 18.326389 36.684375 71.013209
2025-06-15 0.360784 1.255131 3.493106 8.794540 19.967655 40.899284 80.762998
2025-06-22 0.309362 1.160060 3.401762 8.923225 20.922469 43.950427 88.692332
2025-06-29 0.261069 1.058314 3.273508 8.949288 21.668404 46.669183 96.211502
2025-07-06 0.218677 0.959973 3.132741 8.922699 22.295672 49.203022 103.552997
2025-07-13 0.208581 0.967921 3.276961 9.596747 24.494138 54.941799 117.232075
2025-07-20 0.185614 0.921775 3.262047 9.875425 25.846751 59.097991 128.150197
2025-07-27 0.168080 0.889907 3.281752 10.243450 27.432832 63.826941 140.438346
2025-08-03 0.142925 0.817226 3.164205 10.236128 28.153810 66.834566 149.540279
2025-08-10 0.114313 0.715964 2.933657 9.888006 28.033637 68.078089 155.217415
2025-08-17 0.088679 0.613818 2.672966 9.410066 27.541342 68.484032 159.217649
2025-08-24 0.073796 0.556414 2.549830 9.305678 27.955663 70.866272 167.378217